Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.189339 0.226044 0.269602 0.325573 0.396256 0.483454 6.005717e-01
2025-08-03 0.151525 0.198240 0.260369 0.350848 0.482356 0.671622 9.744133e-01
2025-08-10 0.119648 0.168767 0.240642 0.357409 0.550359 0.872290 1.487782e+00
2025-08-17 0.093662 0.140738 0.215493 0.349303 0.598205 1.077326 2.177540e+00
2025-08-24 0.078356 0.125047 0.205299 0.363584 0.696606 1.445946 3.576695e+00
2025-08-31 0.066236 0.111575 0.195343 0.376374 0.806083 1.941708 6.035760e+00
2025-09-07 0.056885 0.100682 0.187220 0.391334 0.937623 2.646583 1.072135e+01
2025-09-14 0.049300 0.091258 0.179441 0.405388 1.085825 3.621738 1.993542e+01
2025-09-21 0.041922 0.080503 0.165850 0.400498 1.184597 4.623829 3.502145e+01
2025-09-28 0.033161 0.064986 0.137431 0.344756 1.080945 4.646739 4.354708e+01
2025-10-05 0.029623 0.060066 0.132804 0.355857 1.237824 6.370562 9.251109e+01
2025-10-12 0.027191 0.057096 0.132234 0.380210 1.484067 9.452257 2.509323e+02
2025-10-19 0.024876 0.054112 0.131442 0.407062 1.803034 14.774980 9.412562e+02
2025-10-26 0.022554 0.050610 0.128290 0.425296 2.125733 22.613047 4.729708e+03
2025-11-02 0.019990 0.045946 0.120425 0.421562 2.329127 31.289845 2.885845e+04
2025-11-09 0.017484 0.040936 0.110116 0.402438 2.412544 39.703070 2.531126e+05
2025-11-16 0.015938 0.038219 0.106368 0.411694 2.761003 61.348690 5.972594e+08
2025-11-23 0.014578 0.035746 0.102729 0.420143 3.150570 97.084934 NaN
2025-11-30 0.013439 0.033676 0.099895 0.431842 3.638052 163.294075 NaN
2025-12-07 0.012427 0.031785 0.097162 0.443147 4.195169 286.633974 NaN
2025-12-14 0.011289 0.029298 0.091521 0.434099 4.487682 435.817691 NaN
2025-12-21 0.009664 0.025064 0.078215 0.370316 3.812510 363.914129 NaN
2025-12-28 0.009050 0.023888 0.076543 0.380391 4.380724 687.919890 NaN